- FTX’s proposed liquidation has shrouded the crypto markets in uncertainty.
- Messari has proffered an objective metric to evaluate the market impact for several crypto assets.
- The firm’s findings defy the prevailing market narrative.
The collapse of FTX, the beacon of Sam Bankman-Fried‘s once-gigantic crypto empire, continues to loom large over the crypto market several months later. Amid bankruptcy proceedings, the FTX estate has proposed selling up to $3.4 billion in crypto assets in tranches of up to $200 million weekly to make creditors whole.
As the Wednesday, September 13 hearing, which will decide the fate of this proposal, draws closer, panic and speculation have run amok, weighing down on the prices of several crypto assets. Crypto market intelligence firm Messari has taken a deep dive into FTX’s crypto holdings to separate fact from market hysteria.
The firm finds that despite the panic around assets like Solana (SOL) and Aptos (APT), which comprise a sizable part of FTX’s claimed assets, the cryptos most at risk of a sell-side pressure are TRON (TRX), Polygon (MATIC), and Dogecoin (DOGE).
TRX, MATIC, DOGE Most at Risk
In a Twitter post on Monday, September 11, Messari suggested that FTX held approximately $1.3 billion in liquid assets by its calculations. In order of largest holdings, these assets include SOL ($720 million), BTC ($353 million), ETH ($113 million), APT ($66 million), DOGE ($37 million), TRX ($33 million) and MATIC ($22 million).
Nonetheless, Messari contends that the most crucial metric in weighing the sell-side risk faced by these assets is not the absolute value but the value relative to weekly trading volumes. Using this metric, the firm argued that TRX, MATIC, and DOGE faced the most risk.
For TRX, Messari found that the estimated FTX holdings represented 12% of weekly volumes. On the other hand, the crypto analytics firm placed this metric for DOGE and MATIC at 6% each.
No Worries About BTC, ETH, SOL, and APT?
Messari asserted that FTX’s BTC and ETH holdings represented only about 1% of weekly trading volumes. As such, the crypto intelligence platform contended that the market could easily absorb the selling pressure.
On the other hand, SOL and APT present a unique situation. While Messari’s account of FTX’s SOL and APT holdings represent about 81% and 74% of weekly trading volumes, the firm notes there is a catch. Unlike the defunct exchange’s other holdings, Messari notes that most of FTX’s SOL and APT are locked in vesting contracts, which will be unlocked in small tranches over time. For example, the firm highlighted that only $9.2 million SOL will be unlocked monthly.
On the Flipside
- In a court filing on Monday, September 11, FTX claims to hold significantly more liquid crypto assets than outlined by Messari. For example, in the filing, the firm asserted that it had about $1.16 billion in SOL instead of Messari’s projected $720 million.
- Despite Messari’s analysis, the role of emotion in dictating market sentiment should not be underrated.
- The court is yet to decide on FTX’s proposal.
- Matrixport cited FTX’s fire sale among possible triggers for an altcoin market crash.
Why This Matters
Speculations on FTX’s proposed liquidation have led to significant uncertainty in the market. Messari’s report offers investors an objective way to evaluate the price risk facing the assets in FTX’s holdings.
Read this to learn more about why Matrixport is warning of an altcoin crash:
Altcoins in Trouble? Matrixport Issues Warning as FTX Plans $3.4B Dump
Recent crypto fund flows show that investor sentiment remains negative. Find out more:
Short Bitcoin Funds Favored as Grayscale ETF Hype Fades