The Bitcoin Halving Is a Marathon, Not a Sprint: Here’s Why

Bitcoin’s halving has sparked excitement among investors, but some may have unrealistic expectations about immediate price gains.

Robot racing in the air to ETF.
Created by Kornelija Poderskytė from DailyCoin
  • Social media has exploded with excitement around the Bitcoin halving, but is it a guaranteed path to riches?
  • Historical data has suggested a price dip before a potential surge. Could this time be different?
  • Mainstream adoption has the potential to change the game for this halving.

Images of Lamborghinis and rockets are flooding social media, fueling excitement surrounding the Bitcoin halving. This pre-programmed event cuts the reward for mining new bitcoins in half, and for many investors, it signifies a guaranteed path to riches. However, this might have led many newcomers to harbor unrealistic expectations.

Debunking Myths Surrounding The Bitcoin Halving

The halving directly impacts Bitcoin’s supply. By reducing the number of new coins entering circulation roughly every four years, it creates scarcity. This scarcity, in theory, should drive prices up if demand remains constant. Less supply, more demand – a recipe for higher prices, right?

Sponsored

Not necessarily in the immediate future. While the halving is generally considered bullish for Bitcoin, historical data suggests a potential price dip before the anticipated surge. Following the 2016 halving, Bitcoin underwent a 29.32% correction within a month before starting its upward trend. It even took 110 days to surpass its pre-halving price.

Bitcoin Daily Chart: 2016 Halving, Post-Halving Drop, and Time to Pre-Halving Price.
Bitcoin Daily Chart: 2016 Halving, Post-Halving Drop, and Time to Pre-Halving Price. Source: TradingView

A similar pattern emerged in 2020. Although Bitcoin didn’t experience an immediate price decrease, it remained stagnant for nearly three months before showing any significant upward momentum. 

Bitcoin Daily Chart: 2020 Halving, Post-Halving Drop, and Time to Pre-Halving Price.
Bitcoin Daily Chart: 2020 Halving, Post-Halving Drop, and Time to Pre-Halving Price. Source: TradingView

These historical trends highlight the possibility of sideways or even downward price action for several months after the halving before a potential bull run kicks in. 

Could This Halving Be Different?

Investors hoping for instant gratification might be disappointed. This halving, however, differs from previous ones in a key aspect: mainstream adoption. The existence of a Bitcoin ETF and a higher level of public awareness could influence price movements differently.

Sponsored

Volatility could stem from two main factors. First, miners, who validate transactions and receive rewards in new coins, might need to sell a portion of their holdings to cover operational costs due to the reduced reward. Second, the anticipation surrounding the halving could lead to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario, where investors cash out after the event.

The Bitcoin halving serves as a positive indicator of the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects. The fundamental impact on supply and demand suggests potential price appreciation over time. However, investors should focus on strategic investment plans and avoid impulsive decisions based on short-term price fluctuations. The halving is a marathon, not a sprint.

On the Flipside

  • As Bitcoin adoption grows, governments may enact stricter regulations, impacting its price and overall usability.
  • While scarcity can drive prices, increased mining difficulty post-halving might discourage new miners from entering, potentially limiting demand growth.

Why This Matters

While the halving historically hasn’t led to immediate price surges, this time around, mainstream adoption and potential selling by miners create a unique scenario with the possibility of short-term volatility, but long-term bullish signs for Bitcoin’s value.
While the Bitcoin halving is a highly anticipated event, experts caution investors to not expect a short-term price surge. Learn more about it here:
Bitcoin Halving Won’t Have a Big Short-Term Bang: Bitwise

Competition heats up between Bitcoin ETFs GBTC and IBIT as IBIT rapidly gains market share due to lower fees. Read about it here:
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Drop Pre-Halving: IBIT Closes Gap with GBTC

This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, and CFDs pose a considerable risk of loss.

Author
Kyle Calvert

Kyle Calvert is a cryptocurrency news reporter for DailyCoin, specializing in Ripple, stablecoins, as well as price and market analysis news. Before his current role, Kyle worked as a student researcher in the cryptocurrency industry, gaining an understanding of how digital currencies work, their potential uses, and their impact on the economy and society. He completed his Masters and Honors degrees in Blockchain Technology within Esports and Business and Event management within Esports at Staffordshire University.