Bitcoin Halving Won’t Have a Big Short-Term Bang: Bitwise

The Bitcoin ETF issuer provided a cautionary perspective on the increasing anticipation surrounding the fourth halving’s impact.

Robot analysing Bitcoin halving.
Created by Kornelija Poderskytė from DailyCoin
  • Asset manager Bitwise has offered insights into expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
  • The firm has cautioned against the misestimation of the event’s impact.
  • Bitwise is bullish on Bitcoin halving long-term.

Bitcoin halving is one of the most celebrated and anticipated historical events, known for its positive contribution to the asset class over time. As the fourth halving countdown intensifies, the question of its promised benefits for the industry looms large as retail investors and analysts eagerly anticipate its impact. 

Joining the discourse is asset manager and Bitcoin ETF issuer Bitwise, albeit with a cautious outlook.

Bitwise: Bitcoin Halving Long-Term is “Underestimated”

Weighing in on the potential impact of the upcoming halving on Tuesday, April 16, Bitwise warned the crypto industry against misjudging the long and short-term expectations for Bitcoin’s trajectory.


Bitwise’s analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s price performance in previous halving cycles, drawing parallels between short-term and long-term price increments following each halving event. For instance, following the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin saw an immediate 8% increase, dwarfed by the staggering 8,839% surge in the subsequent year.

Bitwise's analysis of Bitcoin halving price performance.

Replicated in subsequent halving, the trend saw an initial retrace of -6% in BTC’s price following the 2016 event, only to rebound with a 285% increase in the following year. Similarly, following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin experienced a modest 6% price gain, preceding a remarkable 548% rally in 2021.

Bitwise asserted that the intriguing pattern contrasts the heightened expectation for Bitcoin to reach new heights upon halving, cautioning against neglecting the potential of its long-term impact as the event approaches.

Bitcoin Halving: Counting Down in Blocks

With an average block generation time of 10 minutes and 360 blocks remaining at press time, the fourth Bitcoin halving is days away.


Initially scheduled between April 20, 2024, and April 21, 2024, the change in the block production rate has advanced the event, now slated to happen on April 19 at 23:57 UTC.

Upon the halving, which occurs every 210,000 blocks, the mining block rewards will reduce from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Additionally, block transaction fees will see a significant reduction. The quadrennial event’s historical ability to catalyze a bullish trend for the industry is driving anticipation across the industry.

On the Flipside

  • Some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s breach of the $73,738 all-time high pre-halving suggests the event may be priced in.
  • On April 16, crypto exchange Coinbase shared a homage-paying Bitcoin halving commercial
  • At press time, BTC is trading at $62,286, losing approximately 1.1% in the last 24 hours.

Why This Matters

Bitwise’s analysis of Bitcoin halving expectations, comparing short-term versus long-term perspectives, provides a cautionary perspective and urges market watchers and retail investors to reconsider the potentially misleading immediate outlook.

Here’s how Bitcoin how performed over the past weeks as the halving nears:
Bitcoin Halving Looms 10 Days Away as BTC Reclaims $70K Mark

This altcoin has had a sloppy start to the week; read more about its performance:
Curve DAO Struggles to Regain Balance Despite Market Rebound

This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, and CFDs pose a considerable risk of loss.

Grace Abidemi

Grace Abidemi, a cryptocurrency reporter at DailyCoin, covers industry developments and trends. She previously worked as a freelance writer. With a Bachelor's degree in German Language and certifications in marketing and storytelling, Grace creates engaging content. When not working, she's in Nigeria, mastering cooking and canvas painting, and enjoys learning about different cultures and languages.