- Analysts have been weighing in on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, but how long will it remain stagnant?
- Expert predictions and technical analysis have hinted at Bitcoin’s potential to surge despite the Fed.
- Longer timeframes have suggested significant price increases are possible for Bitcoin, despite short-term uncertainty.
The recent performance of Bitcoin (BTC) has left many investors wondering: is the bull market a thing of the past? While interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve were once seen as a catalyst for increased liquidity and a surge in cryptocurrency prices, the likelihood of this happening seems to be fading. However, this doesn’t necessarily spell doom and gloom for Bitcoin
Sponsored
To keep our readers informed, the DailyCoin team is committed to providing comprehensive updates. In this Bi-Weekly DailyCoin Bitcoin Regular, compiled by our expert Kyle Calvert, we will explore recent developments surrounding Bitcoin and delve into the explanations behind the recent price fluctuations. Additionally, we will cover community sentiments and analyst predictions.
Table of Contents
News and Events
Bitcoin Goes Through Halving Event
Bitcoin just went through a programmed event called the “Bitcoin Halving,” which cut the reward for mining new coins in half. This happens every 4 years to control the supply. Miners will now receive 3.125 Bitcoin per block, down from 6.25. This is the 4th halving since Bitcoin began in 2009.
Grayscale Launches Cheaper Bitcoin ETF
Grayscale has launched a cheaper version of its Bitcoin ETF to compete with BlackRock and Fidelity. This follows Grayscale’s win against the SEC to allow Bitcoin ETFs. The new fund aims to win back investors who left due to GBTC’s high fees.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Gets Approved in Hong Kong
Hong Kong has taken a big step into crypto with the SFC greenlighting Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs from major firms like China AMC and Bosera. These ETFs let investors buy shares backed by real coins, offering a regulated way to invest in crypto. This is a first for Asia and could boost the region’s crypto market activity and influence.
Experts Forecast
The cryptocurrency market experienced a brief dip on April 25 as the U.S. released economic data hinting at a potential “stagflationary” scenario, a situation characterized by high inflation coupled with stagnant economic growth.
Sponsored
This news caused BTC to fall below $62,000 before the Wall Street opening bell. However, the leading cryptocurrency displayed resilience, climbing back above the $64,000 mark by the day’s end.
Popular crypto trader Crypto Chase, known for his analysis on social media platform X, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
He suggests that BTC/USD could potentially surge further, reaching a peak of $68,000.
"In my opinion, the upside potential isn't exhausted yet," stated Crypto Chase. "While I'm already long Ethereum (ETH) from $3,100, this is the level where I would consider entering a long position on Bitcoin with a target of $68,000."
Taking a broader perspective, another trader, Crypto Tony, echoed the sentiment of a potential rise, anticipating new macro highs before a period of consolidation.
Analyst Caleb Franzen, however, identified a key support level for BTC in the short term – the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STHRP). This metric represents the average price at which short-term holders (those who’ve held their coins for less than 155 days) last acquired them.
Notably, the STHRP has acted as a reliable support level since the 2022 bear market, preventing significant price drops. “If Bitcoin falls below the STHRP, currently sitting at $59,530, then I would turn bearish on the short-term outlook,” concluded Franzen.
Current Outlook
BTC remains stuck in a trading range between $60,000 and $70,000 since mid-March. This sideways movement comes despite significant global events, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in economic data. Investors and traders seem hesitant, unsure of Bitcoin’s next move.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s performance. Historically, the cryptocurrency thrives in environments with lower interest rates and higher liquidity. However, the current economic climate presents a challenge. The Fed’s recent statements suggest a wait-and-see approach on interest rate cuts, while inflation data remains high.
This doesn’t align with Bitcoin’s ideal conditions. The upcoming release of CPI data on May 15 will be closely watched for any signs impacting the Fed’s stance.
A break below the $59,000 support level could trigger a downward spiral, potentially pushing the price down to $51,000. This scenario would also signify a break out of the “bull flag” pattern, a technical indicator often associated with bullish trends.
However, a broader perspective offers a more optimistic outlook. While the monthly chart requires Bitcoin to hold above $61,000, and the two-month chart hints at price suppression, the three-month chart paints a clearer picture.
The wick reaching down to retest the 2021 highs suggests a bullish undercurrent. If the price stays above this level for the next two months, it could signal a significant upward trend in the following quarter. Additionally, the Stochastic RSI indicator, a technical momentum oscillator, also presents positive signs.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s current sideways movement reflects investor uncertainty due to ongoing economic factors.
On the Flipside
- Cryptocurrency analysts, like any financial predictors, don’t have a crystal ball. Their forecasts, while interesting, should not be taken as guaranteed outcomes.
- The STHRP has been a reliable support level in the past, but there’s always a chance it could be breached if market forces change significantly.
- Technical indicators are helpful tools, but they are not foolproof. A break below the $59,000 support level could still signal a short-term correction rather than a long-term bear market.
Why This Matters
Despite short-term volatility and a wait-and-see approach from the Federal Reserve, BTC price action suggests a potential bull run in the coming quarter, with technical indicators hinting at bullish momentum and underlying strength. This could have a significant impact on the broader cryptocurrency market by boosting investor confidence and accelerating adoption.
The demand for Bitcoin ETFs is a major contributor to Bitcoin’s price increase this year. With Morgan Stanley potentially supercharging this demand, could Bitcoin be headed even higher? Read more here:
Morgan Stanley To Supercharge Bitcoin ETF Demand: Here’s How
Investors are pulling back from Bitcoin ETFs for the first time, is this a sign of a cooling market? Find out more here:
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Pauses Daily Inflow Streak as BTC Falls
