- The current Bitcoin price action mirrors past halving run-ups.
- The general sentiment is low amid grim macroeconomic conditions.
- Predictions for post-halving price peaks vary wildly.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is abuzz with excitement and anticipation for the upcoming halving event, which occurs every four years. The halving of miners’ block rewards has fueled the scarcity narrative in the past, leading to rocketing price action. Yet some investors are increasingly concerned that this time will be different as Bitcoin continues to trade flat amid a grim macroeconomic landscape.
Although Bitcoin had a soaring start to 2023, bulls have so far failed to recapture the summer year-to-date highs, fostering pessimism for the halving ahead. However, an analysis of price action in the run-up to previous halvings demonstrates strong similarities with the eventual boom of past halvings.
Bitcoin Halvings
An analysis of Bitcoin’s historical price action by trader “Mags” found striking similarities to previous halvings. In a recent Twitter post, Mags charted the BTC price from its prior all-time highs in 2015, 2019, and now, noting that BTC fell between 60% and 65% by the 200 days before each respective halving.
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While the overall sentiment is low, particularly concerning rising rates and the cost of living crisis, Mags concluded that Bitcoin is currently moving in line with past cycles, implying that 2024’s halving may yield positive price action akin to previous halvings.
“So, even if it seems like Bitcoin's price isn't moving much, it's following a similar pattern to previous cycles,” stated Mags.
Mags’ analysis sparked optimism about the upcoming halving and invited speculation about Bitcoin’s potential post-halving peak price this time.
Price Predictions
Despite accurate price prediction being notoriously difficult to pull off, analysts are speculating over Bitcoin’s post-halving peak price. JPMorgan expects to see a $45,000 top, while Standard Chartered gave a $100,000 call by the end of 2024.
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However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tore up the prediction handbook to give a price between $750,000 and $1 million by 2026. Likewise, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood stated that Bitcoin could hit $1.48 million by 2030 due to the capture of the remittance market and growing consensus over BTC’s store of value narrative.
On the Flipside
- There is always a possibility that the price of Bitcoin will fall.
- Price predictions are rarely accurate and must be taken with skepticism.
Why This Matters
Past performance should never be taken as an indicator of the future, yet Bitcoin has undergone periods of stagnation followed by resurgence multiple times during its relatively short life.
Learn more about the recent transfer of 5,000 Bitcoin here:
Bitcoin Whale Moves $137 Million After Three-Year Slumber
Find out how Charles Hoskinson intends to dampen down Cardano FUD here:
Here’s How Cardano Plans to End Crypto FUD Attacks
