- Analysts have increased the odds for spot Bitcoin ETF approval in 2023.
- The SEC suffered a huge setback in Grayscale’s case.
- Deadlines for pending ETF approvals are fast approaching.
Grayscale’s legal triumph against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has increased the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in 2023, according to ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart.
The United States Court of Appeals Circuit ruled on August 29 that the securities regulator didn’t give compelling reasons why Grayscale’s ETF application was denied, ordering the SEC to vacate its earlier decision.
A 75% Probability, Up from 65%
The analysts have now raised the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by a 75% probability, up from 65%, citing that the regulator’s legal and PR setback in the decisive court ruling may make further denials of such applications politically challenging.
“James Seyffart and I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year. While we factored Grayscale’s win into our previous 65% odds, the unanimity and decisiveness of the ruling was beyond expectations and leaves the SEC with very little wiggle room,” Balchunas said in a Twitter post.
In a separate post, James Seyffart opined that the odds of approval will skyrocket to 95% in 2024 and that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a done deal by then.
The Looming ETF Approval Deadlines
The deadlines for the securities regulator to approve, delay, or deny pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications by Fidelity, Invesco, Blackrock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie are fast approaching, from September 1 to September 4.
The analysts say that the SEC will likely delay these approvals following the recent defeat in Grayscale’s case. Another predicted outcome is that the commission might approve all the pending applications in one hit.
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