A popular crypto market commentator is warning that Hedera’s native token, HBAR, may be approaching a structural supply squeeze just as macro uncertainty and geopolitical tension keep prices under pressure.
In a recent YouTube video, LuckSide Crypto argued that most investors are still focused on short‑term price swings, while the main story is how little HBAR is left to be released and how much of it appears to be leaving exchanges for cold storage.
A Shrinking Pipeline Of New HBAR Coins
Citing data shared by Cryptox AI Man, the analyst highlighted the pace at which HBAR’s circulating supply has expanded toward its 50 billion maximum. According to the figures discussed, only about 10 billion HBAR were in circulation in 2021, rising to 21 billion in 2022 and 35 billion in 2024.
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The circulating supply is now said to be “over 43 billion,” implying that roughly 7 billion tokens remain to be released.
“Major institutions and enterprise adoption are quietly accumulating HBAR,” the post he referenced claimed, adding that if demand accelerates, “the remaining supply could get absorbed fast.”
LuckSide Crypto did not present this as a certainty, but described the likelihood of some form of supply shock across select crypto assets as “very high,” particularly where real on‑chain usage is growing while new supply is capped.
He also noted that in the last cycle, HBAR’s price failed to set a new all‑time high, yet its market capitalization did. For him, that divergence is evidence of underlying network growth even if the token’s headline price performance has “lagged.”
Macro Jitters Versus Exchange Outflows
The discussion came against a backdrop of what he called “uneasiness” in markets. The last 24 hours brought fresh headlines about Middle East tensions and ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad, involving both the US and Iran.
Although the ceasefire was described as “still intact,” ongoing strikes and political pushback on both sides continue to unsettle risk assets.
On the macro side, newly released Federal Reserve minutes signaled officials are “more open” to potential rate hikes this year. While the latest US jobs report came in better than expected, talk of renewed tightening has weighed on crypto.
LuckSide Crypto pointed out that HBAR recently broke a key support level before staging a small bounce, while bitcoin was trading back above $71,100 at around 6 AM Central Time.
Despite short‑term volatility, he argued that exchange data shows “very clear demand.” Days with modest HBAR inflows to exchanges are “immediately” followed by larger outflow days, suggesting steady accumulation into long‑term storage. In his view, this is helping build a “big, big floor,” even as some retail holders lose conviction.
The takeaway is straightforward but not necessarily comfortable: if enterprise adoption of Hedera continues to grow and only a limited amount of HBAR remains to be unlocked, any uptick in broader crypto participation could collide with a much tighter tradable float than in past cycles.
Whether that translates into a sharp re‑rating depends on macro conditions, the pace of on‑chain activity, and how quickly sidelined capital chooses to re‑enter the market.
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The analyst, citing third‑party data, said the circulating supply is now above 43 billion out of a 50 billion max, implying about 7 billion HBAR remain to be released.
According to the historical crypto market data, HBAR’s price did not set a new all‑time high, but its market capitalization did, due to the higher circulating supply.
The main concerns raised were potential Fed rate hikes and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, both of which have recently pressured risk assets.
Consistent net outflows into cold wallets suggest long‑term accumulation and reduce the liquid supply that can be quickly sold, which can amplify prices when demand returns.
