DailyCoin Bitcoin Regular: BTC Faces Mixed Signals as Weekly Close Looms

Bitcoin traders eye a trend reversal signaled by a “bullish hammer” on the weekly chart, predicting a surge past ATHs.

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  • Bitcoin price has tumbled but analysts eye potential reversal with “bullish hammer” formation emerging.
  • Experts have weighed in with price predictions as Bitcoin teeters between breaking its ATH or falling to $46,110.
  • Technical indicators have suggested Bitcoin’s next move could be imminent. All eyes are on the weekly close.

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a series of lower highs since mid-March, sparking concerns about a bygone bull run. Analysts remain optimistic though, viewing this as a healthy consolidation period following the halving event. Chart patterns even suggest a potential “bull flag” forming, hinting at a renewed surge toward record highs later in 2024.

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To keep our readers informed, the DailyCoin team is committed to providing comprehensive updates. In this Bi-Weekly DailyCoin Bitcoin Regular, compiled by our expert Kyle Calvert, we will explore recent developments surrounding Bitcoin and delve into explanations behind the recent price fluctuations. Additionally, we will cover community sentiments and analyst predictions.

News and Events

GBTC Records First Daily Inflow

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) recorded its first inflow on May 3, 2024, reversing a trend of outflows since its January launch. This ended an 82-day period during which the fund lost $17.46 billion. The inflow, totaling $63 million, marked a turning point for the world’s largest cryptocurrency investment vehicle.

Hong Kong Launches Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

Hong Kong launched Asia’s first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on April 30. ChinaAMC’s offerings are unique due to features like spot & physical subscriptions and multiple currencies. This attracted interest from miners, Asian investors, and even American family offices. Mainland Chinese investors are currently excluded. 

Bitcoin ETFs Coming to Australia in 2024

Australia’s main stock exchange, ASX, is expected to approve the first Bitcoin ETFs by late 2024. This follows the U.S. and Hong Kong. Financial firms like VanEck and BetaShares are on board. The move could attract significant investment from Australia’s pension market.

Experts Forecast

Bitcoin traders are eyeing a potential reversal in the downtrend with the emergence of a “bullish hammer” on the weekly price chart. Market intelligence firm Glassnode’s founders, Jan Happel and Yana Allemann, writing under their shared X account “Negentropic,” noted the hammer pattern on May 9. 

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This particular candlestick formation indicates a potential reversal as the price closes near its opening after a significant drop during the week, suggesting buying pressure. Pseudonymous crypto trader Mister Crypto echoed this sentiment, suggesting an imminent reversal based on the hammer.

“This week’s pullback hence seems like a healthy correction before higher.” Negentropic added, pointing out that corrections often retrace 50% or 61.8% of the previous upward move.

Another pseudonymous crypto trader, Rekt Capital, highlighted the importance of long downside wicks in ending major corrections for Bitcoin over the past year and a half.

With Bitcoin closing the week of May 5 at $64,109, a 20% upswing would propel it past its current all-time high to $76,822. Crypto trader Mags offered a slightly more conservative prediction, anticipating a reach toward $72,000 if current price levels hold.

However, most traders emphasize the need for confirmation in the following candle before solidifying the bullish signal. All eyes will be on the closing price for the week ending May 12.

Bitcoin’s attempt to rebound at the May 9 Wall Street open fell short despite positive macro data. A brief spike to $61,750 couldn’t hold, coinciding with higher-than-expected jobless claims data in the United States.

Despite the Federal Reserve potentially considering interest rate cuts due to labor market strains, Bitcoin remained subdued at the time of writing, dropping back below $61,000.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades observed significant buying orders between $59,000 and $60,000, potentially acting as support. However, the impermanence of these orders was highlighted.

Earlier reports indicated similar order book behavior, with Bitcoin stuck within a tight trading range. Trading firm QCP Capital expects this consolidation to continue on Telegram, citing factored-in Fed rate cuts and flattened Bitcoin ETF inflows.

On a more optimistic note, popular trader Titan of Crypto projected a potential upside target of $75,000 by the end of the consolidation period. Their chart analysis suggested a possible bullish reversal pattern with limited downside risk.

With various opinions swirling, the upcoming weekly closing price and future market developments will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.

Current Outlook

Bitcoin has dropped over 14% since its mid-March peak, reaching around $62,950 on May 10. This decline coincides with several factors: a lukewarm response to spot Bitcoin ETFs, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates, and lower investment in existing Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysts are looking at technical indicators to predict Bitcoin’s price floor. A “falling wedge” pattern suggests a possible drop to $54,000 by June, but with a potential rebound afterward. This aligns with how falling wedges typically behave.

However, another indicator, the RSI, suggests a steeper correction. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could fall to $46,110 by June, a decline of nearly 25%. A further drop below a key technical level could see Bitcoin plunge as low as $32,410, almost halving its current value. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the depth of this Bitcoin price correction.

On the Flipside

  • While the hammer candlestick pattern is often associated with bullish reversals, it’s not a foolproof indicator.
  • While analysts predict a potential rebound after a correction, the RSI indicator suggests a steeper decline than the falling wedge pattern.
  • The presence of buying orders around $59,000-$60,000 might provide temporary support, but their impermanence raises concerns.

Why This Matters

The emergence of a bullish hammer on the weekly chart alongside analyst predictions of a potential reversal signal a possible end to the current downtrend and a return to Bitcoin’s record highs, with significant implications for investor sentiment and the overall crypto market.

Bitcoin’s price fluctuates, sparking questions: Are whales losing interest? This article explores conflicting whale activity data and its impact on Bitcoin’s future:
Bitcoin Short-Term Jitters: Are Whales Losing Interest?

Is Bitcoin headed for choppy waters? This article explores the technical indicators that suggest a potential decline, but also discusses reasons for bulls to stay optimistic:
Bitcoin Sees Choppy Waters Ahead: Are Bulls Out of the Race?

This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, and CFDs pose a considerable risk of loss.

Author
Kyle Calvert

Kyle Calvert is a cryptocurrency news reporter for DailyCoin, specializing in Ripple, stablecoins, as well as price and market analysis news. Before his current role, Kyle worked as a student researcher in the cryptocurrency industry, gaining an understanding of how digital currencies work, their potential uses, and their impact on the economy and society. He completed his Masters and Honors degrees in Blockchain Technology within Esports and Business and Event management within Esports at Staffordshire University.