Bitcoin’s veteran traders are sitting on record unrealized gains — and some may already be positioning for the next market bottom.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young-ju said Binance traders’ unrealized gains are nearly three times higher than at the 2021 cycle peak, making the current cycle their most profitable yet.
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He attributed the shift to spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, which have emerged as major buyers absorbing Bitcoin supply.
ETFs Are Becoming Bitcoin’s Biggest Buyers
In an analysis posted on X, Ki Young Ju explained that the market has entered a deleveraging phase, with Bitcoin currently trading in roughly the same price range it occupied two years ago.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury companies have become major channels for absorbing Bitcoin supply.
He said profits accumulated during the current cycle have been flowing into futures positions, while some holders have been taking profit, leaving BTC stabilizing near the average acquisition price of Binance traders.
Bitcoin Leverage Is Falling — But It’s Still Elevated
The CryptoQuant founder also noted that the on-chain BTC/USDT futures leverage ratio, calculated as futures open interest relative to USDT reserves, has dropped from over 0.5 to approximately 0.3.
The analyst noted the ratio remains above levels recorded before the spot Bitcoin ETF launched and is unlikely to return to its pre-ETF levels.
“If ETF inflows continue, expect high leverage in futures again,” he noted.
Bitcoin’s OG Holders Are Starting to Buy Again
Ki Young Ju also pointed to Bitcoin’s 2023 cycle low as evidence of long-term accumulation.
He said long-term Bitcoin holders stepped up their buying when the cryptocurrency fell to around $16,000 in 2023, with the taker buy/sell ratio also pointing to a surge in market-order buying at the cycle’s bottom.
According to him, similar spikes in market-buy ratios have recently appeared on OKX and other exchanges, suggesting some OG Bitcoin traders may be positioning for a rebound.
“This should not be read as a definitive bottom signal, but it serves as a useful gauge of OG trader sentiment,” the CryptoQuant founder concluded.
What This Means for Bitcoin’s Next Move
The shift suggests Bitcoin’s market structure has become increasingly shaped by ETFs and treasury firms, while long-term holders remain a key source of potential selling pressure. If OG traders are beginning to position for a rebound, their behavior could offer an early signal of changing sentiment — though it is not yet confirmation of a market bottom.
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