Bitcoin Sheds Early October Gains: Is $30K Still in Play?

Bitcoin retraces below $28k after a solid start to October 2023.

Boy in a toy car taking a Bitcoin on a ride.
Created by Kornelija Poderskytė from DailyCoin
  • Bitcoin has retraced below $28k.
  • The recent decline follows an exciting start to October.
  • Analysts weigh in on the recent decline and Bitcoin’s trajectory for October.

Bitcoin is back in the red. The asset is back below $28k after breaching the price level for the first time since mid-August 2023 in a move that sparked ‘Uptober’ excitement.

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Despite Bitcoin quickly shedding recent gains, analysts remain optimistic about the asset’s odds in October 2023. Will this be an Uptober to remember, or will the bears continue suppressing Bitcoin’s price?

Bitcoin Shed’s Early October Gains

Bitcoin kicked off October by closing above the $28k price point, which sparked significant optimism and led many analysts to chart a path to the $30k price level. However, at the time of writing, the asset appears to be retracing its steps, trading at $27.6k, representing a 2.49% decline in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.

BTC/USD 4-hour candle chart.
BTC/USD 4-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill told DailyCoin that poor uptake of newly launched ETH futures ETFs and continued US dollar strength likely contributed to dampened sentiments.

"There has been disappointment from the ETH futures ETF launches in the US, this could have dampened broader sentiment. Furthermore, the US dollar continues to strengthen despite poor macro data releases and 10yr treasuries rising at alarming levels," the analyst noted.

Matrixport Head of Research Markus Thielen agreed that the lack of inflows to ETH ETFs likely contributed to dampened sentiments but contended that the lack of flows should not be surprising.

"Futures based ETFs tend to underperform due to the monthly roll cost and higher operational costs. The Ethereum network is also generating very low fees which indicates a lack of user activity. Bitcoin has a stronger story going for itself right now as a US based spot Bitcoin ETF could see 10-20bn USD of inflows," Thielen told DailyCoin.

Despite the recent dip, analysts remain unfazed, expressing confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory in October.

On the Road to 30k Still?

Thielen maintained that historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin, tipping a potential Fed easing of interest rates as a likely catalyst for more upside.

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"October tends to be a strong month for Bitcoin and besides any news for a spot ETF which appears more likely in January for a decision by the SEC, I believe that the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates and this could be a bullish catalyst," he noted.

Similarly, in a previous statement to DailyCoin, CoinShares’ Butterfill had asserted that investors ought to keep a close eye on the raging debate on U.S. government selling, U.S. treasury sell-offs, and the Fed. 

Chart analysts also appear optimistic as prominent crypto trader “Phoenix” conceding that the recent price rally was “only bait,” contended that Bitcoin had found support at current price levels. “We’re at support and can now truly flip this important 4h zone,” he asserted.

Underlying the continued confidence of traders in Bitcoin’s upward momentum in October are metrics like the declining Bitcoin supply on exchanges as opposed to the growing stablecoin supply on exchanges. 

In a tweet on Tuesday, October 3, Santiment highlighted that the Bitcoin supply on exchanges was at a six-year low, suggesting significantly low selling pressure. At the same time, the firm noted that 24.7% of USDT was now on exchanges, highlighting that it represented “the highest buying power in 6 months.”

On the Flipside

  • Bitcoin’s price remains locked in a multi-month range between $25k and $32k.

Why This Matters

The broader crypto market tends to follow Bitcoin’s trajectory. A positive run for the asset in October would imply a generally positive run for the rest of the market.

Read this to learn more about the excitement sparked by Bitcoin’s earlier rally:
Bitcoin Uptober Excitement Peaks With $28K Surge: What’s Next?

Learn more about the hacks targeting Friend.tech users:
Friend.tech Security Model Under Fire as Users Report Hacks

This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein shall be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading forex, cryptocurrencies, and CFDs pose a considerable risk of loss.

Author
Okoya David

David Okoya is a crypto news reporter at DailyCoin based in Nigeria. He covers various topics related to the cryptocurrency industry, including exchanges, regulations, and price movements, and strives to bring fresh angles to breaking news. With experience as a freelance crypto news writer, David upholds the highest journalistic standards, telling complete stories and answering lingering questions whenever possible.