- Less than 10,000 blocks remain until the Bitcoin halving.
- The halving is scheduled for April 2023.
- Halvings fuel expectations of Bitcoin price appreciation.
The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that cuts the rate of new BTC entering circulation in half. Bitcoin believers see the reduction in supply issuance as highly bullish due to demand-supply dynamics kicking in to drive appreciation cycles post-halving.
As the fourth Bitcoin halving fast approaches, the network hit a milestone on February 11, as the 830,000th block was added to the blockchain, generating excitement as just 10,000 blocks remain the halving.
The Bitcoin Halving
Excitement grows for Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, with less than 10,000 blocks remaining until the event. Halvings are hard-coded to occur every 210,000th block, which translates to a halving of the rate of new coins entering circulation every four years.
The latest estimate puts the halving to occur in the early hours (UTC) of April 15, based on the current block production rate. Once activated, the mining block reward will drop to 3.125 BTC from the current 6.25 BTC rate. When this happens, there will be 19.7 million Bitcoin in circulation, representing 94% of the entire supply.
Each halving event represents the exponential decay programmed into Bitcoin’s strict deflation schedule. This process will continue with increasingly lower block rewards until 2140 when zero new BTC will enter circulation.
Bitcoin proponents argue that the continuous supply tightening with each halving spurs price appreciation cycles over time.
Price Appreciation Expected
Bitcoiners readily expect halvings to trigger price appreciation cycles, with the upcoming April halving no different. Based on past halving cycles, analyst Rekt Capital theorized that Bitcoin undergoes five stages during each halving cycle, ending with a parabolic rally phase that starts approximately six months after the halving date.
Rekt Capital’s theory played out during the last halving on May 11, 2020. Bitcoin traded at around $9,400 and began the parabolic phase around mid-October 2020. At the cycle top, BTC hit a new all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, around 18 months after the halving date.
If the cycle repeats this time, the market top will come in around October 2025.
On the Flipside
- Past performance should not be used as a predictor for future events.
- Macroeconomic factors such as high-interest rates and inflation in the present were not as prevalent during the previous cycle.
- Critics counter that the deflationary halvings limit Bitcoin‘s usefulness as a medium of exchange.
Why This Matters
The upcoming highly anticipated halving will significantly reduce Bitcoin’s issuance rate. While previous halvings and their anticipated impacts are well-documented, the April halving will occur amidst tightening macroeconomic conditions, introducing a new variable into the equation.
Read about the Bitcoin halving driving bullish sentiment here:
Bitcoin Halving and Stablecoin Boom Fuel Optimism of an ATH
Find out more on Bitcoin’s post-ETF recovery ahead of the halving here:
Bitcoin Bounces Back: Pre-Halving Rally Defies ETF Lows