Ripple’s native XRP token is sitting at a critical juncture that can determine the OG altcoin’s near-term price momentum. This time, the fundamentals of the stats-based technical analysis points to the 100-EMA (Exponential Moving Average), as explained by French chart analyst Egrag.
Will XRP Bounce Off The 100-EMA Level Once Again?
While smaller time-frames give out mixed signals, the picture is way clearer on the three-day charts. Here, XRP’s price tends to bounce off the light-blue line (100-EMA) on a regular basis.
The seasoned analyst says the 100-EMA marked the bottom on numerous occasions, preceding a rally to XRP’s all-time high (ATH). Then, XRP’s price reclaimed it, held it & retested that historical 100-EMA before bussing off to a $3.65 peak-price record.
Now, simply touching it isn’t enough. Egrag expects XRP’s price to hold consecutive candles on the three-day price charts above the 100-EMA level, warning there’s still probably one more dip ahead.
If the price of XRP doesn’t sustain above the current $1.38 – $1.40 reaction zone, the OG altcoin may briefly fall into the liquidity pockets between $0.95 to $1 before kicking off vertically.
XRP Activity Cools: Market’s Waiting On Mega Catalyst
With this potential macro dip sub-$1, “people who missed the $0.95–$1.00 range may get one final chance” to acquire at this range, says the analyst. For market watchers looking at stronger confirmation before stepping in, reclaiming the $2.27 resistance level will be key.
That level would immediately restore the price heights of 2026, adding fuel for a potential $2 reclaim. Based on historical patterns, the crypto charter draws the line at $3.84 as the near-term macro breakout zone for XRP’s price.
On the other hand, getting further away from that 100-EMA reaction zone may not be easy with the volatility metrics hinting at consolidation. Following a huge network activity spike in August, XRP’s current trading activity points to compression as the market awaits the next big catalyst.
According to the blockchain intelligence platform Crypto Quant, the XRP Volume Z-Score (30d) saw tremendous growth during August, reaching as much as ‘4’. However, now it’s very close to zero, meaning that the current trading volume is “very close to the average for the measured period, showing no significant positive or negative deviation from typical activity”.
If XRP’s price breaks out of that 100-EMA reaction zone and sustains above $1.40, there’s a good chance the Z-Score would pick up along with the trading activity just like it did in August. With the market trading sideways, much will also depend on the CLARITY Act update, coming up on September 15, 2026.
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