In a new macro-focused market breakdown, crypto analyst Levi Rietveld warns XRP holders that the coming week’s U.S. inflation data could trigger “downwards pressure” on digital assets, even as optimism builds around potential regulatory clarity for the token in the coming years.
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Levi from Crypto Crusaders frames the next CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) releases as the key catalysts, arguing they will shape Federal Reserve policy, risk appetite, and ultimately XRP’s price path. The message to investors is blunt: prepare for a worst-case scenario before betting on another leg up.
Inflation Data Seen As Immediate Threat To Liquidity
Further on, the market connoisseur cites consensus estimates from “top financial analysts” calling for a 0.5%–0.7% month-on-month CPI increase, which would lift year-on-year inflation to about 3.6%, up from 3.3% in March. PPI is projected around 4.2% or higher on an annual basis.
If those stronger inflation prints materialize, they would likely force the Fed to maintain or even tighten restrictive policy, “sucking up billions of dollars of liquidity from the markets” and reinforcing a risk-off environment. In that scenario, higher rates are framed as directly negative for XRP and crypto broadly.
Oil is central to this view. Despite intermittent pullbacks on “mini de-escalations” in the Middle East, the host notes that crude benchmarks are still hovering around $100 a barrel on average, with the geopolitical situation described as “extremely fluid” and unlikely to resolve quickly.
Bear Market Structure Still Intact For XRP & Bitcoin
On the technical side, Levi compares current XRP and Bitcoin price action to previous bear cycles. A key reference is the 20-week simple moving average (SMA): historically, after breaking below key long-term SMAs in a bear market, both assets have tended to reclaim the 20-week SMA at least once before ultimately setting a cycle bottom.
That pattern, Levi claims, appears to be repeating. Bitcoin has recently broken above its 20-week SMA, and XRP has shown a similar retest behavior. But the analyst cautions that this bounce does not mean “we’re automatically outside of this bear market” or on the verge of all-time highs, emphasizing that the structure still aligns with prior bear-phase rallies.
Regulatory Tailwind: Clarity Act Odds Spike For 2026
Against the macro and technical caution, the video highlights one major long-term positive: betting market odds now imply a 74% chance that a “Clarity Act” providing regulatory clarity is signed into U.S. law in 2026.
The analyst notes these odds have “absolutely skyrocketed” recently and are at or near all-time highs, though similar levels were seen earlier around legislative markup phases.
Levi Rietveld stresses that “nothing is guaranteed in life except for death and taxes” but positions this regulatory trajectory as a potential structural tailwind for XRP if it materializes.
For now, however, the focus remains on the near-term risk from inflation data and the need for investors to “be ready for whichever outcome does come our way” on Tuesday and Wednesday.
For XRP holders, the takeaway is straightforward: short-term macro risk and liquidity conditions may weigh on XRP and the wider market, even as longer-term regulatory odds improve. Position sizing and timing around the upcoming CPI and PPI prints could matter more than usual in the days ahead.
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Higher-than-expected inflation increases the odds of tighter Fed policy, which the analyst says removes liquidity and typically pressures risk assets like XRP.
They argue current price action is consistent with past bear-market rallies and does not yet confirm a new full bull cycle.
It’s described as prospective legislation that would provide regulatory clarity for digital assets, with betting markets assigning a roughly 74% chance it becomes law in 2026.
Elevated oil prices are seen as a driver of sticky inflation, which in turn keeps pressure on central banks to maintain higher interest rates, weighing on crypto valuations.
