HBAR remains roughly 88% below its record price, yet the analyst in a recent video places it closer to recovery than most of the largest cryptocurrencies from 2021. That comparison is less a sign of strength than a measure of how severely much of that market has fallen.
Using CoinMarketCap’s November 7, 2021 rankings, the analyst selected the 50 largest coins after excluding stablecoins and wrapped assets. In the video’s snapshot, 41 remained at least 80% below their respective highs, with the median decline around 97%.
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“It’s not a forecast,” Cheeky Crypto says. The figures describe historical performance, not the likelihood of a recovery.
Seven cents leaves a long climb to the record
At the roughly $0.07 price cited in the video, HBAR would need to rise about eightfold to revisit its approximately $0.57 intraday peak. The analyst separates that brief high from its strongest daily close, just above $0.50 on Binance in September 2021.
The proposed recovery levels start at $0.10, about 43% above the video’s reference price. Next comes $0.25, roughly 3.6 times that price, followed by the record itself.
HBAR has already demonstrated that a substantial rally need not restore earlier buyers’ losses.
Its strongest daily close since 2021 was around $0.37 in January 2025, according to the video, still roughly a quarter below its record close despite an approximately tenfold rise from late 2022.
A familiar price would require a larger valuation
The bigger obstacle is supply. Cheeky Crypto says the amount of HBAR released from treasury has more than tripled since its record, making a return to $0.57 a materially different valuation proposition.
At the supply level cited, that price would imply a market capitalization near $25 billion. Matching HBAR’s historical peak market capitalization would instead require roughly $0.11 to $0.16 per token, depending on the historical supply figures used.
That valuation is not equivalent to cash that must enter the market, a distinction the analyst explicitly makes. But additional token releases could raise the valuation required to regain the old price.
For investors, the useful distinction is between recovering a token price and recovering a network valuation. HBAR’s smaller drawdown relative to many peers does not erase dilution or make its former high an inevitable destination.
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