In a new market breakdown,a technical analyst behind the latest Hedera (HBAR) update argues that, despite a clearly bearish price structure, derivatives data is flashing the kind of stress signals that have previously marked local bottoms for the token.
While overall interest in Hedera coverage has waned “since the start of the bear market,” the host of Cilinix Crypto says the current setup is one of the more technically interesting in weeks.
Bearish Structure, But Order Flow Hints at Spot Buyers Stepping In
On the chart, HBAR is trading “quite far below” its recent two‑month range, which the analyst places around $0.0915. The market attempted to reclaim that area on Tuesday, May 7, but was “majorly rejected,” reinforcing a bearish structure with weak follow‑through on brief bursts of momentum seen last week and earlier this week.
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Yet the derivatives and order‑flow picture looks more constructive. Cilinix Crypto highlights a divergence between price and cumulative volume delta (CVD): CVD is still falling as shorts increase and longs close, while spot price is holding up and forming higher lows. “That means that most likely spot is buying,” the host explains.
Funding rates add to that thesis. The analyst notes “very negative funding rates yesterday evening,” which remain below zero, indicating futures are trading under spot as traders lean heavily short or as spot demand outpaces new long positions.
Looking back at prior instances on the daily chart when Hedera’s funding turned similarly negative, the analyst identifies several local bottoms around January 31, February 8, and March 14 that were followed by moves to the upside, even if one of them still led to a slightly lower low first.
Key Levels To Watch Now As HBAR Hits a Potential ‘Fake‑out’ Buy Zone
The host is not ready to call a confirmed bottom, emphasizing that these are “bottoming indications, not confirmations.” With Bitcoin “pulling back slightly,” a further dip in HBAR is seen as likely. The level to watch is around $0.0838 — a precise zone defined by the March 31 low and an earlier price spike, described as “the most interesting level.”
If price pushes below that support but quickly reclaims it — a “fake out below and then a reclaim” — the analyst sees that as a potential technical buy opportunity.
In that scenario, a strong support test would align with overshorting signals from funding and CVD, giving traders a defined invalidation point and a case for a bounce toward the top of the current consolidation range.
For now, the analyst expects Hedera to continue consolidating, likely tagging the bottom of the range before attempting another move higher. A clean breakout that decisively repairs the broader bearish structure is viewed as “unlikely” at this stage, but the host plans to reassess if the anticipated rebound materializes.
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The host says they see no strong fundamental reason to be “super optimistic” right now, framing the setup as a tactical potential bottom rather than a long‑term bullish call.
A clean breakdown below the $0.0838 area without a quick reclaim, especially on strong volume or amid negative news, would weaken the bottoming thesis.
The analyst points to the two‑month range around $0.0915; reclaiming and holding above that area would be an early sign of structural improvement.
Very important: deeply negative funding, combined with price resilience and CVD divergence, is central to the argument that Hedera may be forming a local bottom.
