The CLARITY Act’s path to becoming law has gone from uncertain to bleak. One industry research estimate now puts its chance of passage in 2026 at just 10% — a sharp drop from the far more optimistic read earlier this year.
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The Senate’s cramped calendar and unresolved political fights have left the market-structure bill without a clear runway. Lawmakers are not expected to vote before the August recess, and the thin stretch of remaining session days makes passage a long shot unless the bill suddenly jumps to the top of the priority list when they return.
Legislative Pause Hands The Microphone To Agencies
With Congress stuck, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission are increasingly viewed as the players most likely to shape near-term crypto policy. The SEC has been exploring a tailored framework for crypto offerings that could chip away at some of the regulatory fog lawmakers had hoped to clear with legislation.
That process has hit some turbulence. An anticipated SEC discussion of its crypto regulatory agenda was reportedly canceled just before commissioners were due to meet, with the agency citing scheduling issues. The last-minute cancellation only added to the uncertainty around timing and scope.
Even so, the direction of travel is clear: regulators appear ready to move whether or not Congress delivers a comprehensive statute.
Agency rules could shape how token issuers bring offerings to market, how platforms operate, and where investor-protection lines are drawn — though they still won’t settle every jurisdictional turf war between regulators.
Crypto Markets Could Get Rules Without the Big Bill
Some industry voices argue that crypto adoption and institutional activity will keep grinding forward even if the CLARITY Act never clears the Senate. A piecemeal approach, however, carries its own risks — overlapping standards from different agencies, or future administrations quietly rewriting rules that never had full congressional backing.
The real question is no longer whether Washington will regulate crypto. It’s who gets to write the rulebook. A stalled CLARITY Act leaves that power increasingly in the hands of regulators, potentially delivering faster guidance while leaving behind the very uncertainty a durable law was supposed to eliminate.
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