- Bitcoin’s trading landscape has experienced a seismic shift in 2024.
- Weekend trading volumes are at an all-time low.
- Historical data identifies ETF launch as the primary cause.
June was a rollercoaster for the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, which surged close to its all-time highs early in the month only to nosedive to $59,000 weeks later. While, based on the past month, it may seem Bitcoin has been exceptionally volatile, Kaiko’s latest research report suggests otherwise, not just for this month but for the entire year.
Bitcoin Weekend Trading Volumes Spiral Post ETF Launch
Bitcoin’s trading landscape has experienced a seismic shift over the past year, as weekend trading volumes hit the lowest levels in history. While weekends once accounted for up to 28% of Bitcoin’s trading activity, the past year saw this figure dwindle to just 16%, notes Kaiko.
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In its report, the crypto research firm detailed several factors contributing to the decline, including Bitcoin’s institutionalization this year following the launch of spot ETFs in the US.
While cryptocurrency markets are celebrated for being available to everyone at any time, ETF trading is limited to weekdays when stock markets are open. Since Q4 2023, when the market anticipated the launch of these products, Kaiko researchers noted a notable increase in Bitcoin trading during the final hour of market trading, known as the benchmark fixing window, which happens between 3 and 4 pm New York time.
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the benchmark fixing window has emerged as the second most popular time for Bitcoin trading, accounting for over 6.7% of all volume this year. In stark contrast, weekend trading has consistently spiraled since 2021, reaching historic lows this year.
Crypto-Banks Closure Also Behind Weekend Trading Volumes Dwindling
Kaiko also detailed that another factor for lower volatility on the weekend could be attributed to the closure of crypto-friendly banks like Signature and Silicon Valley in March 2023. These banks maintained 24/7 networks that enabled market makers to place traders for crypto at any time of the week; however, since their closures, market makers have shown reluctance to provide liquidity in low-volume environments like on the weekends.
However, not all hope is lost as July looks to shake things up.
Bitcoin Braces For Eventful July
July will be a turbulent month for the crypto market, marked by events that could rattle the status quo. These include the potential approval of Ethereum ETFs, the prospect of an altcoin season gaining momentum, and nearly $730 million in token unlocks.
Bitcoin holders will be particularly vigilant, closely monitoring the aftermath of Mt. Gox users entering the market. Starting July 1, the rehabilitation trustee plans to distribute assets totaling $9 billion, comprising 142,000 Bitcoin, 143,000 Bitcoin Cash, and 69 billion Japanese yen in fiat currency. Should claimants decide to offload their holdings, Bitcoin could face significant selling pressure.
Adding to the complexity, the FOMC meeting at the end of July will also introduce substantial volatility, with market participants eagerly awaiting a potential rate cut — the first in two years. This meeting also represents the FOMC’s final chance to hold on to its promise of a rate cut before the November elections.
On the Flipside
- Historical Data shows that Bitcoin has experienced price increases in seven of the past eleven Julys.
- Three of the last Bitcoin all-time highs have occurred on Wednesdays.
Why This Matters
Bitcoin’s weekend trading levels hitting all-time lows could spark a massive shift in how traders strategize and trade. The lack of volatility could also make the asset more predictable and easier to trade.
Crypto market braces for impact:
Crypto Market Anticipates $730M Impact From July Token Unlocks
When Ethereum ETF?
Ethereum ETF Anticipation Fizzles as SEC Returns S-1 Forms
