Prominent analyst Levi Rietveld argues that a newly cited milestone in the U.S. Treasury market could become a major short-term risk signal for XRP and the broader digital-asset market.
His latest YouTube video analysis points to what it describes as the first negative 10-year rolling annualized return for U.S. Treasuries, estimated at roughly minus 2%, while suggesting that any further Federal Reserve tightening could trigger another rapid crypto selloff.
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Levi frames the bond-market development as part of a wider shift away from dollar-denominated reserves. China’s Treasury holdings were cited as having fallen to their lowest level since 2008, while Japan and other countries were described as adjusting their Treasury exposure amid domestic economic pressure.
Bond-market stress, rate expectations and crypto risk
The video argues that Treasury investors have faced weak long-term results despite yields around 4.5% to 5%, largely because bond prices have fallen as rates rose.
It compares the current environment with earlier periods of inflation and higher interest rates, including the early 1980s, although it acknowledges that historical patterns do not guarantee a repeat.
According to the commentator, markets were pricing more than a 50% chance of a rate increase around September 15.
If rates rise, the host expects crypto to react first because it is “the single most liquid class in the world,” potentially producing a sharp correction before a recovery.
The analysis draws on the 2022-23 period, when rising rates coincided with major industry disruptions including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and FTX.
Levi Rietveld says a similar downturn is high probability, but not a certainty. He also warns that investors should expect heightened volatility rather than treat a correction as a definitive long-term signal.
Ripple custody deal supports the longer-term XRP thesis
Against that macro backdrop, the YouTube video highlights a recently announced partnership between Ripple and settlement technology provider Ctrl Alt. The arrangement integrates Ripple’s custody platform with Ctrl Alt’s digital-asset lifecycle management system, aiming to give institutional clients a single platform for asset issuance, custody and management.
Levi describes the deal as an early example of how large institutions could adopt blockchain-based financial infrastructure.
That does not necessarily mean XRP itself will be used across every product or client workflow, but the commentator views Ripple’s growing institutional presence as supportive of the wider XRP ecosystem.
The video also points to a Charles Schwab survey cited in a television clip, saying 30% of teenagers were “extremely interested” in investing, 40% were very interested and another 30% were somewhat interested.
Levi expects younger investors to become more active in markets over time, potentially amplifying retail participation during a future crypto rally.
What investors should be watching now
Levi Rietveld’s central forecast is for volatility through year-end, followed by a possible XRP recovery in 2027 if market conditions improve and institutional integration accelerates. That remains a speculative projection, particularly given the uncertainty around interest-rate policy, recession risks and XRP’s dependence on broader crypto-market liquidity.
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