An analyst from Coin Bureau Trading argues the latest crypto sell-off has less to do with long-term fundamentals and more with algorithms reacting to a sharp move in the Japanese yen, setting up what he sees as a near-term bounce and possible short squeeze.
In a new market breakdown, Dan from Coin Bureau doubtlessly links the overnight slump in Bitcoin and major altcoins to a surge in the yen when Asian markets opened, after US officials reportedly signaled potential intervention to support Japan’s currency.
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With an estimated “60% to 80%” of crypto volume driven by automated systems, he says those algorithms “basically started selling crypto automatically, assuming that there would be an imminent yen carry trade unwind.”
Yen Jolts, Exposing CME Gaps & Ethereum’s “Bottoming Process”
The host stresses that current yen carry trade risks are “not the same” as in summer 2024, when highly leveraged positions were caught offside. Citing macro analysts such as Han Manon of Prometheus, he notes that large institutions were “really burned” then and have since dialed back leverage, making a cascading unwind less likely.
He frames the latest downside as algorithmic “overreaction” that has created upside gaps on CME futures across major coins.
For Bitcoin, he highlights a gap around $89,340 on CME, and for Ethereum around $2,942. Based on his technical work, he expects Bitcoin and Ether to trade back up to these levels “in the next couple of days” to close the gaps, with a possible “small pullback and then a continuation higher.”
This fits into what he calls a “very big bottoming process” that has been in place since November of last year. In his view, large holders have been accumulating throughout the current range in Bitcoin, Ethereum and “many large cryptos” contrary to the prevailing narrative that recent breakdowns confirm a failed bull move.
Regulatory Woes Amid Fed’s Tough Choice & Precious Metals Froth
On the near-term calendar, Dan points to a Senate Agriculture Committee discussion on the Clarity Act scheduled for tomorrow as a potential positive catalyst for digital assets.
The expert characterizes sentiment around the bill as “optimistic” even as related activity in other committees has seen delays. That event could, in his view, help spark the initial bounce from current levels.
Dan then flags the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday as a likely source of “volatility” rather than a major policy surprise, with algorithms and short-term traders positioned to react aggressively to any nuance in the Fed’s language.
With “everyone… very, very short here” after key supports broke, he argues that a modest rally combined with any regulatory upside surprise could trigger a “pretty decent… short squeeze.”
The analyst also revisits his recent targets for gold and silver, which he placed around $5,100–$5,200 for gold and $110 for silver.
On lower time frames, he notes gold has already tagged roughly $5,100, while silver reached about $109.5, leading him to believe both metals are near a “local top” after a speculation-driven run since last summer for gold and the fall for silver. He stresses he is not a dedicated precious metals trader and advises viewers to treat that view cautiously.
For cryptocurrency aficionados, the key takeaway is that the latest drawdown may owe more to mechanical selling and macro headline sensitivity than to a fundamental breakdown in demand.
If CME gaps are filled and regulatory developments break favorably while positioning remains heavily short, the stage could be set for a grinding recovery rather than an immediate slide into a deeper bear market.
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People Also Ask:
According to the analyst, most crypto volume is algorithmic, and many systems sold on yen strength due to fears of another carry trade unwind, amplifying the move.
The Coin Bureau specialist highlights a CME gap near $89,340 for Bitcoin and around $2,942 for Ethereum as likely short-term magnet levels.
He points to the Senate Agriculture Committee’s Clarity Act discussion & the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting as near-term volatility drivers.
He believes they are near a local top after reaching his upside targets, but is unsure if this marks a full cycle peak in precious metals.
