In spite of posting solid 92.9% gains in a yearly timeframe, Ripple coin’s (XRP) percentage of supply in profit has turned to a yearly low, resembling early November, 2024 levels. Back then, XRP was priced at just $0.53, having 58.5% of the OG altcoin supply in profit.
Top or Bottom Signal For XRP’s Price?
Right now, around 26.5 billion XRP coins are sitting at a loss, even though XRP’s price is trading roughly four times bigger than the previous instance. At $2.15, profit taking is still hefty across both retail & wholesale crypto investors, with the Profit Realization Volume (7-day SMA) picking up pace by 240% in a month, signaling an instance of bearish divergence.
According to these research-based conclusions from Glassnode, the structurally fragile crypto market dominated by late buyers is a crystal clear trait of a local top. On the other hand, this played out well for Ripple coin (XRP) last time, as the early 2025 bull rally witnessed an XRP squeeze followed by a breakthrough beyond $3.
Supply Squeeze Tested By Market Fright
Notably, the superb XRP rally to the all-time peak of $3.65 last Summer was driven by multiple legal victories. With the SEC vs. Ripple case settlement & crypto-friendly acts approved by the Senate, XRP’s price had factored in this with multiple rallies – and traders expect the same to occur with the ultimate launch of Ripple-based ETFs.
If history repeats itself, the debut of Franklin Templeton & Canary Capital’s Ripple (XRP) ETFs could garner fresh buying power, as seen on $250M inflows on debut day. However, this is overshadowed by fearful broader market sentiment. Right now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at a drastic figure of 11, meaning extreme fear has risen considerably.
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It shows what percentage of all existing XRP tokens are currently worth more than the price at which their owners bought them. When the number is low, a lot of holders are sitting on losses and the market feels heavy.
The price crashed from above $3 down to $2.15, pushing roughly 41.5% of the total supply underwater. That means millions of newer buyers who entered near the top are now stressed and more likely to sell on any bounce.
Back then XRP was trading at just $0.53 with the same low profit metric. Over the next few months it cleared the pain and exploded all the way past $3, turning that capitulation into a massive rally.
It’s historically bullish long-term because extreme loss levels flush out weak hands, but short-term it’s bearish. Whales have been distributing heavily into the drop, so more downside toward $1.80–$2.00 is possible before any real reversal kicks in.
The $2.15 zone is the line in the sand—hold it and bulls regain control, lose it and pain accelerates. Keep an eye on whether the profit percentage starts rising again; that’s usually the first green shoot before any serious pump.
