Crypto analyst and YouTuber Nick (NCash), known for his macro-driven Bitcoin and XRP coverage, is not calling Monday’s $100 billion slide in total crypto market cap a crash. In his latest video, he frames the move as a “slight sell-off” and argues that structurally, Bitcoin’s chart still looks intact despite a sharp intraday liquidation cascade.
Bitcoin fell roughly 2.5% on the day, while XRP slid about 4.2%. Many altcoins dropped harder, which he links to elevated Bitcoin dominance amplifying downside in the broader market.
Whale Move Triggers Liquidations Amid Fair-Value Gap
Nick highlights on‑chain and exchange flow data showing that roughly 22,918 BTC — about $4 billion — was sold by whales and major venues (Coinbase, Bybit, Binance, Wintermute) within about an hour. That selling wave triggered roughly $546 million in long liquidations and erased around $130 billion from total crypto market value in about 90 minutes, according to data he cites.
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Technically, he had been watching a specific “fair value gap” on Bitcoin between $94.5K & $92.4K, flagged to his Discord members on January 15 when BTC was trading near $96.9k. That zone has now been fully tapped. On lower timeframes, he notes prior bearish divergence on the RSI and calls this move a largely anticipated pullback rather than a structural breakdown.
On the weekly chart, he contrasts Monday’s candle with historic sell-offs — including 2020-style 40–60% down days and a roughly $20,000 single-day move on October 10 — to argue the current move is “very small” by Bitcoin standards.
XRP’s Present Price Pattern & The Big Altcoin Stress
XRP, which wicked down to roughly $1.91 after losing the $2 level he had been watching, is still “holding relatively well” compared to many altcoins, in his view. On the daily chart, he sees the early formation of a possible inverse head‑and‑shoulders pattern, contingent on daily closes above about $1.94 and more price data.
Most altcoins, he notes, are now in oversold territory on higher timeframes, a typical dynamic when Bitcoin dominance is high and BTC pulls back. Volatility, he stresses, is “just typical crypto behavior” rather than evidence of a systemic breakdown.
Tariff Uncertainty: Risk Of Another Trade War?
The macro driver Nick is watching most closely is not ETF flows or Fed policy, but tariffs.
He links the sell-off to renewed fears of a US‑EU trade war and notes that Bitcoin dumped about $3,600 after US futures opened lower on those headlines. He points to an estimate from legal observers putting the odds at roughly 62% that the US Supreme Court will rule Trump‑era tariffs illegal, with a potential decision as soon as Tuesday, January 20. That timing is uncertain, and he flags the risk of yet another delay — the last expected ruling on January 14 was pushed back.
Markets are “very sensitive to any tension” he argues, and tariff headlines have already hurt both stocks and crypto. He draws a direct line back to early 2025, when talk of an intensifying trade war coincided with a topped‑out Bitcoin market, bearish weekly divergence, and the start of a deeper draw-down.
From here, he lays out a stark conditional: if a fresh trade war with the EU truly escalates, he sees a real risk of Bitcoin sliding back below $70K — levels not seen since October 2024 — and altcoins being “absolutely slaughtered.” At that point, he would consider the market effectively in a new bear phase, even if a later recovery is possible.
What Nick’s Watching Next
Short term, Nick is focused on:
- Bitcoin defending the recently filled $94.5K–$92.4K zone
- A renewed push above prior local highs around $97.7K
- A move toward the $100K–$106K resistance band drawn from 2024
On the 4‑hour chart, Bitcoin’s RSI is oversold for the first time since mid‑December, which he reads as a sign that a local floor may be close. He is skeptical of “long weekend” price action with US markets closed for MLK Day and wants to see how spot equities reopen on Tuesday amid a dense week of US data: housing, GDP, PCE inflation, PMI, and a wave of S&P 500 earnings.
For now, his stance is that the charts still favor a continuation higher once the current macro overhang clears — but that regulatory and geopolitical decisions on tariffs could quickly flip that narrative if they push the global economy back toward a trade war.
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People Also Ask
Nick doesn’t think so yet. He sees the move as a healthy pullback unless a renewed trade war drives Bitcoin below $70k.
He treats $100k–$106k as the next major resistance band drawn from 2024 structure, more important than whether BTC closes above or below $94k.
A sustained breakdown below the recent fair value gap, combined with escalating tariff conflict and a drop under $70k, would shift his bias toward a full bear market.
Tentatively bullish. He’s watching for an inverse head‑and‑shoulders pattern to confirm, with daily closes above roughly $1.94 as a key reference.
