Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a prolonged bear market, with community apathy reminiscent of 2022, according to seasoned crypto trader and analyst Benjamin Cowen.
In his latest video, “Bitcoin: The Bear Market Blues”, Cowen ties this trend to historical patterns in midterm election years, which often coincide with prolonged bearish periods.
A Cycle Unlike the Others: No Euphoria, No Altseason
Unlike previous cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, this bear market lacks a major altcoin season or widespread euphoria at the top. Cowen notes that Bitcoin appears to have peaked amid apathy, even before the full end of quantitative tightening, drawing parallels to the 2019 bear market.
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Looking ahead, he anticipates a potential counter-trend rally toward the bull market support band, followed by deeper declines that could push prices to $60,000–$70,000 by summer 2026.
The 200-week simple moving average serves as a key technical reference, and Cowen suggests a macro bottom may form around April–May 2026, influenced by Federal Reserve policy shifts or leadership changes.
Why This Bear Feels Worse
Unlike the sharp, euphoric reversals seen after past bull markets, Cowen argues that this market downturn is unfolding in a more drawn-out and psychologically draining way, like a slow grind lower punctuated by short-lived relief rallies.
While Bitcoin bear markets historically last roughly a year, he argues this one could resolve more quickly because it began under conditions of apathy rather than overinvestment.
Why This Matters
Recognizing how this cycle differs from past bear markets can help investors navigate the downturn and identify long-term opportunities, particularly amid broader market weakness and cautious sentiment.
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People Also Ask:
A bear market is typically a decline of 20% or more from recent highs. For Bitcoin, bear phases often involve 70–85% drawdowns from cycle peaks, lasting about 1 year, driven by capitulation and reduced hype.
Historically, around 1 year (e.g., ~365 days in 2018 and 2022). They follow bull market tops and align with the 4-year halving cycle.
Bitcoin halvings occur every ~4 years, reducing mining rewards and often sparking bull runs. Cycles include: post-halving rally, euphoria/top, bear market reset, and accumulation before the next halving.
Yes—some follow extreme euphoria and altcoin seasons (sharp crashes), others peak on apathy (slower, grinding declines, like potential parallels to 2019).
Historically, yes for long-term holders. Major gains often come from accumulating at cycle lows (e.g., late 2022 buyers profited in the next bull). Patience and respecting the cycle are key.
