- Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has made a significant assertion about the SEC’s stance on Bitcoin ETFs.
- Balchunas’ statements add to the growing consensus that the SEC is set to approve the product.
- Investors’ nerves continue to grow as the January 10 deadline approaches.
As the next deadline for the SEC to decide on spot Bitcoin ETF applications approaches, the crypto markets are beginning to feel the tension, and even experts have not been excluded from these jitters.
Over the past 24 hours, Matrixport Head of Research Markus Thielen has admitted to changing his view on the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the January 10 deadline. Much to the chagrin of crypto proponents, the analyst asserted that he now expects the agency to turn down applicants again despite recently recorded progress.
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Disputing Thielen’s stance, Senior Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas has made a disclosure that could provide significant respite for crypto proponents who have been monitoring updates with rapt attention with the hopes that the SEC will finally approve a spot Bitcoin ETF product after nearly a decade of denials.
Bitcoin ETF Just One Vote Away?
Responding to Thielen in an X post on Wednesday, January 3, Balchunas asserted that at least three of the five SEC commissioners favored approving a spot Bitcoin ETF.
While Balchunas did not explicitly state who these three commissioners were, they likely include Hester Peirce, also known as Crypto Mom, and Mark Uyeda. Peirce is widely known to be a long-time crypto supporter. Uyeda had joined Pierce to author a statement criticizing the SEC’s denial of VanEck’s spot Bitcoin ETF application in March 2023.
However, the identity of the third commissioner remains unclear, though Balchunas’ statement suggests that it could be SEC Chair Gary Gensler. He highlighted that the agency’s staff had worked on applications through the holiday under the SEC chair’s supervision.
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Unlike Matrixport’s Thielen, Balchunas’ view is significantly positive, suggesting that only one more vote would be needed to form the super majority of four out of five votes to get the spot Bitcoin ETF applications approved.
Still, the recent back and forth over whether the SEC would approve a spot Bitcoin ETF product has taken a toll on the markets, with investors now seemingly content with a wait-and-see approach.
How Bitcoin Could React Following an SEC Decision
In the now controversial Tuesday, January 2 report, Matrixport had asserted that Bitcoin could drop as low as $36k if the SEC decided to reject pending ETF applications. This is a price correction that prominent analyst “IncomeSharks” has noted was possible since the end of last year from a pure price action point of view.
On the other hand, IncomeSharks has also noted that if ETFs are approved and see significant interest, Bitcoin could surge to all-time highs at around $69k in Q1 2024.
As reported by DailyCoin on Tuesday, January 2, analysts optimistic of a continued upward move for Bitcoin have set immediate targets between $48k and $50k. At the time of writing, the asset is trading just below the $44k price point after paring losses from a crash below $41k on Wednesday, January 3, when the Matrixport report made the rounds online.
On the Flipside
- Bloomberg’s Balchunas has noted that there is still a chance that the SEC could delay its decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications. However, he asserts that this chance remains slim.
- Several analysts have cautioned that the predicted short-term price impacts of a Bitcoin spot ETF may be overstated.
Why This Matters
The cryptocurrency industry has been pursuing the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF product for the past decade, believing it could usher in trillions of institutional capital into the crypto markets by providing a familiar on-ramp for interested traditional investors. Balchunas’ statements add to the growing consensus that the SEC would finally approve the product in January 2024.
Read this for more on Matrixport’s controversial prediction:
Bitcoin ETF Poised for Rejection by SEC? $36K Projected
Learn more about the growing Polygon (MATIC) optimism:
Polygon MATIC Optimism Returns as It Teases Bank Partnership
