Ethereum (ET) is once again approaching the $4,500 mark, reviving speculation over whether the second-largest cryptocurrency can finally break through its all-time high near $5,000.
Analysts say the answer may rest in the hands of large holders, and whether spot demand can catch up with speculative flows in derivatives markets.
Whale Accumulation Fuels Rally
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reports that August saw divergent trends among Ethereum’s biggest investors. So-called “mega whales” or wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH, accumulated aggressively over the summer, driving net inflows of more than 2.2 million ETH over 30 days.
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That buying coincided with Ethereum’s rally, but accumulation has since paused. By contrast, “large whales” or those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH, have resumed buying after weeks of distribution, adding around 411,000 ETH in the same period.
These periods of whale accumulation directly correspond to the development of ETH’s “aggregate impulse,” a measure of market momentum.
“Therefore, what ETH needs to clear $5,000 is renewed strong-hand accumulation to generate impulse,” state crypto analytics from Altcoin Vector.
Derivatives vs. Spot
Market structure also plays a role. Glassnode notes that Ethereum’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) shows clear divergence in spot flows between Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to their data, Bitcoin market is dense, while ETH market remains “sparse with air gaps”, and has less frequent on-chain trading activity.
“This suggests ETH price dynamics may be more influenced by off-chain markets such as derivatives,” Glassnode notes.
However, analysts believe a sustained price breakout could attract more traditional spot demand, generating the necessary momentum to achieve new record highs.
On-chain intelligence firm Santiment supports this view, noting that mid-sized holders (wallets controlling between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH), have collectively increased their holdings by 14% over the past five months.
The question remains whether this renewed accumulation will be enough to generate the impulse needed to clear the path to $5,000.
Why This Matters
Whale activity and shifts in market structure are key indicators of future price movements.
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The $5,000 mark is significant because it represents Ethereum’s previous all-time high from the 2021 bull market. Breaking above this level would signal renewed investor confidence and potentially trigger further upward momentum.
Spot demand refers to investors buying ETH directly on exchanges, reflecting long-term conviction. Derivatives trading, such as futures and options, allows speculation on price without holding the asset. Analysts note that Ethereum’s recent moves have been more influenced by derivatives than by spot demand.
Cost Basis Distribution is an analytics tool that maps the price levels at which investors acquired their ETH. A “dense” CBD indicates strong participation at many price levels, while a “sparse” CBD , as seen with Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, suggests gaps in conviction-driven spot buying.
Analysts suggest that renewed accumulation from large holders, combined with stronger spot market demand, could provide the momentum needed for Ethereum to surpass its previous highs.
