Stellar (XLM) is grinding through what technical analyst ChartNerd describes as a “bullish reset” with price currently testing a multi-year ascending support line that has repeatedly marked major bottoms.
The long-term chart shows XLM sitting inside what appears to be the final leg of a corrective structure — labeled as wave 5 — after a series of higher lows along a blue ascending trendline that dates back years.
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That same trend-line previously acted as a springboard in 2020, 2023, and 2024. Each time price tagged it and held, a meaningful expansion followed.
The Setup: Sweep, Support & Historical Pattern
ChartNerd highlights several constructive elements. XLM price has swept recent lows and is building what looks like a potential double-bottom structure near the rising support. Prior major corrections on this chart delivered drawdowns of 70%+ before the next expansion phase kicked in.
The current correction is approaching the average duration of those earlier bear phases, adding a timing element to the technical case.
The blue ascending support remains the critical line. As long as it holds, the broader structure stays intact. A decisive break below it would weaken the bullish reset thesis and open the door to deeper downside.
Conversely, a strong reaction off the trend-line would reinforce the idea that sellers are exhausting themselves at a historically significant level.
The Upside Target: Macro Fibonacci Extension
Looking further out, ChartNerd points to a 1.272 Fibonacci extension that projects toward the $2.40–$2.45 region. That level sits well above the current XLM price and would represent a substantial multi-year move if the ascending support continues to hold and the next expansion phase materializes.
This is not a short-term call. The XLM chart frames the current action as a reset within a much larger structure rather than an immediate breakout setup. Patience remains the operative word — the same patience that has been required through previous multi-year consolidations on this trendline.
What XLM Bulls Are Watching Now Near-Term
For now, the market is focused on whether XLM can stabilize and reclaim short-term structure after testing the long-term support. Volume confirmation and a shift in momentum would strengthen the case that the reset is complete. Until then, the ascending trendline remains the make-or-break level that defines the entire thesis.
Stellar’s chart is telling a story of repeated tests and eventual expansion off the same rising support. Whether this latest visit produces the next leg higher will depend on whether buyers step in with the same conviction they have shown in prior cycles.
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