Prediction markets have seen explosive growth over the past few years, according to a new report from crypto investment firm Keyrock.
Since early 2024, monthly notional volume on these platforms has surged from under $100 million to over $13 billion by late 2025. Transactions jumped tenfold, while monthly active users skyrocketed 150 times, making prediction markets among the fastest-growing sectors globally.
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Platforms including Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, MYRIAD, Limitless, and Opinion are at the forefront, leveraging blockchain technology to deliver transparency, scalability, and global accessibility.
Beyond Sports
The report highlights that in 2025, prediction markets are diversifying beyond sports, with Polymarket showing a more balanced mix of politics, crypto, and sports, while Kalshi remains heavily sports-focused.
On Kalshi, combined open interest in politics, elections, and economics is 2.5 times larger than sports. On Polymarket, politics markets outpaced sports by 400% in 2025.
Non-sports categories are driving both trading volume and open interest. Economics markets saw a tenfold increase in trading volume this year, while tech and science markets surged seventeenfold.
Open interest followed a similar trend. Economics grew sevenfold, and social and culture markets expanded sixfold.
Accuracy That Beats Polls
Prediction markets are proving their credibility. According to report, Polymarket correctly prices outcomes roughly 90–95% of the time, with accuracy improving as liquidity deepens.
Across both Polymarket and Kalshi, Brier scores average around 0.09, outperforming opinion polls, expert forecasts, and even weather models.
Beyond accuracy, these markets are increasingly acting as early warning systems for macroeconomic risk. Prices adjust in real time, often signaling shifts ahead of traditional reactive models.
Durable Adoption
The report notes that adoption is not only accelerating but proving sustainable. Polymarket outperforms more than 85% of crypto protocols in user retention, based on a sample of over 275 projects.
Prediction markets gained mainstream attention in the fall of 2024, as Kalshi and Polymarket drew global interest ahead of the U.S. presidential election, capturing over $4.5 billion in trading volume across markets in October 2024.
Institutional confidence followed accordingly. Polymarket secured up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at an $8 billion valuation, while Kalshi raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation amid international expansion to over 140 countries.
Why This Matters
Prediction markets are emerging as real-time gauges of the economy, spotting shifts faster and allowing investors to react immediately.
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People Also Ask:
Prediction markets are trading platforms where participants buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections, economic indicators, or tech developments. Prices reflect the probability of an event occurring.
Key platforms include Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, MYRIAD, Limitless, and Opinion. They leverage blockchain technology for transparency, scalability, and global accessibility.
Prediction markets are highly reliable. Polymarket correctly prices outcomes 90–95% of the time. Brier scores across Polymarket and Kalshi average 0.09, outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and even weather models.
Yes. Prices adjust in real time and often anticipate macroeconomic shifts ahead of traditional models, making these platforms early warning systems for inflation, GDP changes, and other economic risks.
