Bitcoinโs โsmart moneyโ, long-term holders who bought between 2019 and 2022, still control a massive chunk of Bitcoinโs supply. If Bitcoin prices surge, these long-term holders could trigger a fresh wave of selling pressure, potentially capping the rally, warns Glassnode.
Holds Large Share of Bitcoin Supply
According to Glassnode, addresses holding Bitcoin for 3 to 5 years now control 11.9% of the total supply. This group is closely watched because they often time their sales to maximize profits, signaling key profit-taking phases.
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Their holdings reached a peak on November 9, 2024, at 15.7%, the highest level since March 2017. After reaching this peak, these holders started selling, paused briefly, then resumed in April 2025.
While down from the peak, their current share remains far above the ~3% lows seen during past bear market capitulations, representing a significant supply overhang.
โ3โ5 year holders control a large share of wealth and tend to sell into strength,โ Glassnode notes.
Although their recent selling slowed, 12% of supply still held by this group means many are waiting for higher prices to take profits. If Bitcoin rallies again, fresh selling from this cohort could weigh heavily on the market.
Investor Behavior Points to Potential Local Top
Glassnode also notes that around May 28, Bitcoin investor dynamics shifted sharply.
Momentum Buyers, or traders chasing price gains, dropped dramatically (RSI fell to ~20), while Profit Takers, or those locking in gains, surged (RSI climbed to ~77).
โThis trend often shows near local tops, as traders begin locking in gains instead of building exposure,โ explains Glassnode.
At the same time, the first-time Bitcoin buyers remain active, with the 30-day RSI above 90, indicating strong entry demand.
โIf it fades, the lack of momentum support and rising profit-taking could lead to short-term consolidation – worth monitoring cohort rotation,โ says Glassnode.
On the Flipside
- Meanwhile, Bitcoinโs hashrate, the total computing power securing the network, hit a record 942.61 million terahashes per second on Monday, according to Blockchain.com. A record-high hashrate is generally seen as a positive sign for network security and investor confidence, which can be bullish for Bitcoinโs price in the medium to long term.
Why This Matters
Long-term holders have paused selling for now, but the risk of a major sell-off remains. Known for offloading near market peaks, this group still controls a huge share of Bitcoinโs supply. Their next moves could dictate Bitcoinโs price trajectory in the months ahead.
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The biggest holders of Bitcoin are typically large institutional investors, cryptocurrency exchanges, and early adopters known as “whales.” Some of the largest known Bitcoin holders include Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, who is estimated to hold about 1 million BTC.
Smart money in crypto refers to experienced investors or insiders who make informed, strategic trades based on deep market knowledge and analysis, often influencing market trends.
Bitcoinโs price drops when selling pressure from long-term holders rises, buying momentum slows, or negative market sentiment and external factors weigh on demand.
