Gemini, the New York-based cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate regulated prediction markets in the United States.
Gemini Gains Regulatory Green Light
The approval comes through its affiliate, Gemini Titan, which has been granted a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, allowing the platform to offer contracts on the outcomes of real-world events.
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Gemini Titan plans to launch in the U.S. prediction markets with simple yes-or-no event contracts, allowing users to trade on the likelihood of future outcomes. American customers will soon be able to access these markets on Gemini’s web platform using USD, with mobile app trading expected to follow shortly.
The move is part of Gemini’s broader push to expand regulated offerings in the U.S., with the company signaling potential future products including crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts.
Highlighting the potential of this emerging sector, Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President, said, “Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets.”
The approval places Gemini alongside other licensed operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket, highlighting a growing segment of regulated event-based trading.
Prediction Markets on the Rise
Prediction markets are gaining momentum in the U.S. as investors look for new ways to bet on everything from macroeconomic shifts to crypto prices and political outcomes.
What was once a niche corner of finance is moving into the mainstream. Major players and venture-backed firms are entering the space, adding liquidity, credibility, and broader visibility, which is fueling rapid adoption.
At the same time, institutional partnerships, including media deals that provide live probability data, are bringing greater transparency and legitimacy, attracting both retail and professional investors.
The growing interest is reflected in trading volumes. In October 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leading U.S. platforms, posted a combined $4.5 billion in trading, one of the highest monthly totals on record. Both operate under CFTC oversight, offering a regulated and secure environment for event-based trading.
On the Flipside
- Kalshi and Polymarket already dominate U.S. prediction markets. Gemini will need to differentiate its offerings to capture meaningful market share.
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People Also Ask:
Prediction markets are trading platforms where participants can buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. Each contract typically represents a yes/no question, with payouts dependent on whether the predicted event occurs.
Events can range from financial indicators (like Bitcoin price targets) to political outcomes or other measurable real-world occurrences, depending on what Gemini lists.
Unlike stocks or bonds, prediction markets allow you to speculate directly on the probability of specific events, rather than owning a company or asset.
Gemini is a cryptocurrency exchange and custodian founded by the Winklevoss twins, offering trading, custody, and other crypto-related services.
Gemini aims to expand its regulated financial offerings in the U.S., providing a legal and secure venue for innovative trading products.
