- Polymarket prices a 30% chance of 2026 passage, up from recent lows.
- Kalshi shows a similar 37% probability for passage as of September 14.
- The Senate cloture vote needs 60 votes on Tuesday.
The U.S. Senate is set to hold a cloture vote on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday, September 15, in a key test of whether Republicans can secure the 60 votes needed to advance the crypto market structure bill.
Prediction markets have turned somewhat more optimistic ahead of the vote. Polymarket currently gives the CLARITY Act a 30% chance of becoming law in 2026, while Kalshi puts the probability at 37%, although both remain well below their February highs.
Sponsored
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning they need at least seven Democratic votes if all Republicans support the bill. Any GOP defections would increase the number of Democratic votes required.
Polymarket and Kalshi Odds
As of September 14, Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act a 30% chance of being signed into law by the end of 2026, according to its “CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026” contract. The market has recorded $16.2 million in cumulative trading volume.
The current probability is up from roughly 12% in early September but remains well below the 82% probability recorded in February, before Trump’s crypto-related disclosures intensified the ethics dispute surrounding the bill.
Kalshi’s comparable contract, which resolves on whether crypto market structure legislation becomes law by January 1, 2027, showed a similar reading of 37% as of September 14, also down sharply from 90% in February.
That is more than double Kalshi’s early-September reading of 14.1%.
As DailyCoin reported on Monday, President Trump agreed to roughly 80% of the key ethics provisions in the CLARITY Act, including stronger restrictions on officials’ crypto holdings and expanded enforcement authority for state attorneys general.
The concessions are intended to help clear the path for the 60 votes needed to advance the bill in the Senate.
Ethics provisions remained one of the central obstacles to the bill’s progress in the Senate. The Republican draft has made substantial concessions, including on the Trump-related ethics provisions, but Democrats still have to decide whether those changes are sufficient.
Seven Democratic senators said in a joint statement earlier that earlier drafts of the bill “fell short” on ethics, consumer protection, and illicit-finance provisions.
Why 60 Votes Matter
The cloture vote does not determine whether the CLARITY Act becomes law. Instead, it tests whether the Senate has enough support to move the bill forward and begin formal consideration.
Republicans control 53 Senate seats, leaving the party dependent on Democratic support to reach the 60 votes required to overcome a filibuster. Any Republican defections would increase the number of Democratic votes required.
Stay in the loop with DailyCoin’s top crypto scoops:
SHIB Trillionaire Cashes 125B. The Tape Doesn’t Go Quiet
Bitcoin Price Surges to $78.7K After CPI as Bulls Recover Key Ground