Odds of the bill passing this Congress have slipped, with Galaxy Digital dropping its implied probability to just 60%.
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Senate delays, competing priorities like AI policy, and election-year chaos are all squeezing the timeline. What looked like a strong runway a few weeks ago is now looking uncomfortably narrow.
Time’s Becoming The Real Enemy?
It’s not that lawmakers suddenly hate crypto. The issue is procedural: the Senate Banking Committee is swamped, and a floor vote before the July 4 recess looks increasingly unlikely.
That compresses everything and raises the risk of the bill getting kicked into a long, messy negotiation cycle that could bleed well into 2027.
XRP & RLUSD Are Watched Closely
This delay matters a lot for XRP. The token has been grinding in the mid-$1.20s lately, showing some resilience but clearly waiting for clearer rules. A strong CLARITY Act would be a major tailwind for XRP’s institutional narrative, especially as RLUSD (Ripple’s regulated USD stablecoin) continues gaining traction globally.
RLUSD’s recent expansion — now live with major partners in Turkey and sitting at $1.7 billion market cap — shows Ripple is already building real institutional rails. But U.S. regulatory clarity would supercharge that momentum and open the floodgates for bigger players.
What This Means For The Markets
A slower path for CLARITY means prolonged policy risk. Exchanges, token issuers, and projects with heavy U.S. exposure could stay stuck in “enforcement-first” limbo for longer than expected. That uncertainty usually keeps a lid on valuations and makes institutions more cautious.
The CLARITY Act isn’t going off the table, but the momentum has definitely cooled.
For XRP holders, this delay is a reminder that regulatory wins take time — even when the industry is pushing hard. While RLUSD keeps winning abroad and XRP holds its ground, the real catalyst everyone’s waiting for is still stuck in Washington traffic.
The clock is ticking, and the longer this drags, the more the market will price in all of the extended uncertainty.
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