Bitcoin has finally broken above a level that has capped its price for 45 weeks. Bitcoin closed the week above its 50-week moving average (50W MA), a technical level that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling during major bear markets.
The historical record is striking: across 13 weekly reclaims during completed Bitcoin bear markets, only two were followed by another lower low.
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That does not prove the current bear market is over. But it puts Bitcoin at a historically important crossroads.
Bitcoin Reclaims the 50-Week Moving Average After 45 Weeks
Galaxy Research’s Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn highlighted the move on X on September 21, noting that Bitcoin had closed the week above its 50-week moving average.
Thorn also pointed out that Bitcoin has gained 29% over the past 35 days, adding further significance to the latest move.
In an earlier Galaxy Research analysis, Thorn described the 50W MA as a historical “bear market ceiling,” examining Bitcoin’s repeated failures to reclaim the level during major downturns.
The latest weekly close is notable because Bitcoin had spent 45 consecutive weeks without closing above the 50W MA.
While Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200W MA) has historically acted as a long-term bear-market floor, the 50W MA has often played the opposite role during major downturns, acting as resistance that Bitcoin struggled to overcome.
Bitcoin Made No New Low After 11 of 13 Historical Reclaims
Galaxy Research previously analyzed Bitcoin’s behavior after losing the 50W MA during five completed bear markets.
Across 106 weeks spanning those bear markets, Bitcoin closed above the 50W MA just three times. All three occurred during the 2021–22 bear market.
Expanding the analysis to the individual weekly reclaims produces 13 historical instances.
The results are notable.
- Five reclaims were the first reclaim after a bear-market low. None was followed by a new lower low.
- Six additional reclaims occurred later during recoveries, after the market bottom had already been established.
- Two occurred before the final low during the 2021–22 bear market. Both subsequently failed.
In other words, Bitcoin did not make a new low after 11 of the 13 historical weekly reclaims of the 50W MA.
That history does not establish a probability for the current cycle, but it does show that decisive weekly reclaims have generally been associated with a market that was already moving beyond its bear-market lows.
The First Reclaim After a Bottom Was Usually the One That Mattered
The historical record becomes more significant when looking specifically at the first reclaim after a bear-market low.
In four of the five completed bear markets that lost the 50W MA, the first weekly reclaim after the eventual low proved to be the definitive one.
The exception came during the 2021–22 bear market, when Bitcoin reclaimed the 50W MA before making its final low and subsequently fell below the level again.
What the 50W MA Reclaim Means for Bitcoin
Historically, Bitcoin rarely made a new low after reclaiming the 50W MA following a bear-market bottom.
That doesn’t confirm the current bottom is in. But if Bitcoin holds above the 50W MA on a weekly basis, the latest move would increasingly resemble the post-bottom reclaims seen in previous cycles.
For now, the 50W MA is shifting from resistance to a key level of potential support.
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